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Commvault: Harvest Now, Decrypt Later: Why Quantum Threats Are Real

Commvault
07/13/2026
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from theory and maybe some isolated cases to like it's happening and people are reporting on it, right? So the threat of Harvest Now Decrypt Later is absolutely real. We're seeing reports of adversaries doing this now. So the ticking time bomb analogy is probably quite accurate. One of the other things that I think is capturing a lot of the news cycle is recently Google had published that the initial theories about when ECC would get cracked is greatly accelerated from the initial time. So that's where I think that collapsing of the timeline, we're seeing that kind of also playing out. And what's interesting about that is, although that's directly related to like the qubits, and if you start to do some fuzzy math, it still feels like 10 years out, but it doesn't take into consideration like any type of algorithmic improvements and things of that nature. So I think as all of those things kind of come together, it creates this perfect storm. Now in the meantime, that's kind of on the quantum and the algorithm side. You still have regulations, you still got NIST kind of doing their thing. You got FIPS 1.4 being sunset. So like you have all of these things kind of coming from all these different angles causing that pressure. And when you think about the three-year timeline, we're going to start to see the certificate rotation thing come into play. You're going to see this requirement for FIPS 140-3 coming in. You're going to see NIST making greater recommendations on how you're going to have newer algorithms to be quantum resistant. So organizations are going to have to start putting the pedal to the metal and really figuring out like how they're going to get this to be deployed across their entire estate. And I always talk about like the discovery aspect, like they're going to have to get a move on on that because this is not an overnight flip the switch type of thing.

TL;DR

  • Harvest Now, Decrypt Later attacks are no longer theoretical — adversaries are actively collecting encrypted data today for future quantum decryption.
  • Google's recent research suggests timelines for breaking ECC are accelerating, and algorithmic improvements could compress the window further.
  • Regulatory pressure from FIPS 140-3 requirements and NIST post-quantum standards is converging with quantum risk to create immediate urgency for organizations.

Summary

In this short clip from Commvault's STRIVE series, Michael Fasulo explains why Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) has crossed from theoretical concern into active threat. Adversaries are already collecting encrypted data today with the intent to decrypt it once quantum computing capabilities mature — and recent research from Google suggests the timeline for breaking elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) is accelerating faster than initial estimates. Fasulo notes that while qubit-based projections might still suggest a decade-long runway, those calculations don't account for algorithmic improvements that could compress the window significantly. Compounding the urgency, regulatory pressure is mounting from multiple directions simultaneously: FIPS 140-2 is being sunset in favor of FIPS 140-3, NIST is formalizing post-quantum cryptographic standards, and certificate rotation requirements are expected within a three-year horizon. Organizations cannot treat quantum readiness as a future project — cryptographic discovery across the entire technology estate must begin immediately, as transitioning to quantum-resistant algorithms is a multi-year undertaking that cannot be executed overnight.

Chapters

0:00 - HNDL Moves from Theory to Reality
0:22 - Accelerating Quantum Timelines
1:01 - Regulatory and Standards Pressure
1:35 - Cryptographic Discovery as First Step

Key Quotes

0:10 "The threat of Harvest Now Decrypt Later is absolutely real. We're seeing reports of adversaries doing this now."
0:27 "Google had published that the initial theories about when ECC would get cracked is greatly accelerated from the initial time."
0:45 "It still feels like 10 years out, but it doesn't take into consideration like any type of algorithmic improvements and things of that nature."
1:35 "Organizations are going to have to start putting the pedal to the metal and really figuring out like how they're going to get this to be deployed across their entire estate."

FAQ

What is Harvest Now, Decrypt Later and why is it a current threat?

HNDL is a strategy where attackers collect encrypted data today and store it until quantum computers can break the encryption. It is a current threat because adversaries are already executing this approach, meaning data stolen now could be exposed years from now when quantum capabilities mature.

What is the first step organizations should take toward quantum readiness?

Cryptographic discovery — organizations must first understand where cryptography is being used across their entire environment before they can begin migrating to quantum-resistant algorithms. This process alone takes significant time and cannot be skipped.


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